William A. Barnett's Recent Research Oswald Distinguished Professor of Macroeconomics University of Kansas

I have uploaded some of my most recent working papers to the Economics Working Paper Archive. Links to the locations of those papers in that archive are provided below, along with links to their locations in alternative affiliated archives. I also have scanned and put online my book, Consumer Demand and Labor Supply, and the introductory material and table of contents of the two more recent books, (1) The Theory of Monetary Aggregation and (2) Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics.  I similarly have put online the front matter of the book of interviews I recently coedited with Paul Samuelson, Inside the Economist's Mind.

BOOKS

• My 1981 North Holland book, Consumer Demand and Labor Supply, which is out of print, is online both locally and in the Economics Working Paper Archive.   That scanned book also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
• The book, The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, edited by William A. Barnett and Apostolos Serletis, has been published in the North Holland monograph series, Contributions to Economic Analysis (edited by D. W. Jorgenson, R. Blundell, J.- J. Laffont, T. Persson, and J. Tinbergen).  The ISBN number is 0-444-50119-3, and the publication date is 2000.  The volume contains a unified collection and discussion of my most important published papers on financial aggregation theory and monetary economics.  The book's table of contents, preface (by W. Erwin Diewert), and introduction are online.  That front matter also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
• The book, Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics, edited by William A. Barnett and Jane Binner, appeared in 2004 in the same North Holland monograph series as the previous volume that was edited by Barnett and Serletis.  The Barnett and Binner volume's ISBN number is 0-444-50861-9.  The volume contains a unified collection and discussion of my most important published papers on applied and theoretical econometric modelling.  The book's table of contents, preface (by W. Erwin Diewert), volume introduction, and section introductions are online.  That front matter also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
• The book, Inside the Economist's Mind:  Conversations with Eminent Economists, edited by William A. Barnett and Paul A. Samuelson, is published Blackwell and appeared in November 2006..  The ISBN number is 1-4051-5715-1.  The front matter of the book, which is online, includes the Table of Contents, Coeditor Preface by W. A. Barnett, Coeditor Foreword by P. A. Samuelson, and History of Thought Introduction by E. Roy Weintraub.  The chapters of the book are reprints of interviews first published in the Cambridge U. Press journal, Macroeconomic Dynamics, which is edited by W. A. Barnett.   At the request of Blackwell, I am accumulating quotations from readers of the bound page proofs of the book, for possible use in advertising or as backflap blurbs for the published book, when ready.  Reporters, columnists, and others with press contacts will be provided with advance review copies, upon request.  Brief biographical information about the book's coeditors is online.  A Blog exists for discussion about issues raised by the book.  The book has translated into Korean and Simplified Chinese and is being translated into Russian and German.
  

1. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis), "Fellow's Opinion: Econometrics, Data, and the World Wide Web,"  appeared in the Journal of Econometrics as a JE Fellow's opinion article, vol. 77, 1997, pp. 297-302.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
2. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis) and Yi Liu (University of S. Alabama), "The CAPM-Extended Divisia Monetary Aggregate with Exact Tracking under Risk."  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives. 
   
3. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis), Milka Kirova (Washington University in St. Louis), and Meenakshi Pasupathy (Washington University in St. Louis), "Technology Modeling: Curvature is not Sufficient for Regularity."  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives. 
4. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis), Yi Liu (Washington University in St. Louis), Haiyang Xu (Monash University), and Mark Jensen (University of Missouri), "The CAPM Risk Adjustment Needed  for Exact Aggregation over Financial Assets," presented at the Conference on Computation and Estimation in Finance and Economics, held at Washington University and organized by William Barnett, Lars Hansen, and George Tauchen. The conference proceedings have been published as the two inaugural issues of the new journal, Macroeconomic Dynamics. A subset of the material in this long working paper has appeared in the second of those issues (vol. 1, no. 2, of the journal).  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
5. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis) and Yi Liu (University of S. Alabama), "Beyond the Risk Neutral Utility Function," presented at the conference on Divisia Monetary Aggregation held at the University of Mississippi. The paper appeared in the proceedings volume,  published by Palgrave. The editors of the  volume are Michael Belongia and Jane Binner.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
6. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis), Milka Kirova (Washington University in St. Louis), Meenakshi Pasupathy (Washington University in St. Louis), and Piyu Yue (IC2 Institute at the University of Texas at Austin) , "Estimating Policy-Invariant Technology and Taste Parameters in the Financial Sector, When Risk and Growth Matter." This is the original working paper, which produced the more condensed version published in the November 1995 edition of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. Our unpublished reply to one of the discussants is also attached at the end of this working paper.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
7. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis), "A Perspective on the Current State of Macroeconomic Theory." This original working paper has appeared in a slightly revised form in The International Journal of Systems Science, vol. 25, no. 5, 1994, pp. 839-848. That special edition consisted of opinion papers regarding the state of the field of macroeconomics. This paper contains my views on that subject.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
8. William A. Barnett (Washington University), A. Ronald Gallant (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill), Melvin J. Hinich (University of Texas at Austin), Jochen A. Jungeilges (University of Osnabrueck), Daniel T. Kaplan (Macalester College, Department of Mathematics), and Mark J. Jensen (Southern Illinois University at Carbondale), "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition Among Tests for Nonlinearity and Chaos."  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.  This working paper, contains the results of a large scale competition. In addition to the paper and the figures, the simulated data used in the competition are also archived online to facilitate replication and comparison with future competing tests. The tests entered into the competition include White's neural net test, the BDS test, Kaplan's test, the NEGM Lyapunov exponent test, and the Hinich bispectrum test. The paper has been published in slightly revised form in the Journal of Econometrics, vol. 77, 1997, pp. 297-302. Details of the experimental design and of replications using real, rather than simulated, data have appeared in a series of prior published papers.
      To further facilitate replication and future comparisons, I am in the process of providing links here to the uploaded source code for each of those tests. At present, all but one test's code is online:


Two source codes for the BDS test are available. One is in the software section of the web site supported by W. D. Dechert and is compiled DOS executable object code usable on a PC. The other, supported by B. LeBaron, is C source code, and is best used on UNIX workstations. The FORTRAN source code for the bispectrum test is supported by M. Hinich . The FORTRAN source code for the NEGM Lyapunov exponent test is supported by A. R. Gallant . To facilitate replication in the large samplecases with the difficult NEGM test, the output from the NEGM test in the simulated large sample cases also are archived online. The Matlab software for running Kaplan's Delta-Epsilon test is supported by Danny Kaplan. A link to the source code used for White's test is not currently available online, since the person who ran White's test (Jochen Jungeilges) has so far not made his code available online. Hopefully he will do so eventually. Meanwhile, if you would like to try to acquire the code used for White's test directly from Jungeilges, you could contact him by e-mail, but he can be difficult to reach. Alternatively, you could find much information about White's test on Hal White's own online list of publications.



9. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis), "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?" This paper is an article invited by the Economic Journal for its Controversies Section, July 1997. That Controversies Section is on the subject of stability of demand for money functions, and the relevancy of microfoundations to solution of the paradoxes regarding the behavior of that function.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, SSRN, and Ideas archives.
10. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis), Katharine G. Abraham (Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics), Robert J. Gordon (Northwestern University), Jack E. Triplett (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce), David W. Wilcox (Federal Reserve Board), and Kirk M. Wolter (NORC and U. of Chicago), "Statistics under the Spotlight: Improving the Consumer Price Index."  This paper also is online in the EconPapers,  SSRN, and Ideas archives.  This document includes the transcript of a tape-recorded statement by W. A. Barnett and the panel discussion that followed on the subject of the Consumer Price Index and of federal data quality. The tape recording was from an invited session, organized by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at the annual meetings of the American Statistical Association in Chicago in 1996.
     Plots are provided of a newly merged long term data base produced by splicing Commerce Department data with Kuznet's earlier historical data base. The result is consumption quantity and price data at various levels of aggregation linked directly to federal data updates, but extending back over a century of economic history. This unique data base was produced by Barry Jones and Travis Nesmith while working as Visiting Scholars at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. The full transcript will appear in the American Statistical Association's 1996 Proceedings of the Section on Government Statistics. 

11. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis), "The Current State of Research on Dynamic Economics, A Review Article of Giancarlo Gandolfo's, Economic Dynamics, third edition." This article is a book review of the recent third edition of Giancarlo Gandolfo's well known book, Economic Dynamics. His book has been updated to include extensive background on modern mathematical methods in discrete time and continuous time dynamic analysis. This book review has appeared in the Journal of International and Comparative Economics.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
12. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis), Alfredo Medio (University of Venice), and Apostolos Serletis (University of Calgary), "Nonlinear and Complex Dynamics in Economics." This paper consists of a survey of the economics literatures on nonlinearity, complex dynamics, and chaos. The paper surveys both the theoretical and empirical research in these areas, and emphasizes unsolved problems and unresolved issues.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
13. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis) and Haiyang Xu (Washington University in St. Louis), "Money Velocity with Interest Rate Stochastic Volatility and Exact Aggregation." This paper explores the properties of the velocity function and the velocity stochastic process, when interest rates exhibit stochastic volatility. We find that variations in interest rate stochastic processes have explanatory power omitted from most studies of money velocity. A revised version of this paper with the somewhat modified title, "Stochastic Volatility in Interest Rates and Nonlinearity in Velocity," appeared in a special edition of the International Journal of Systems Science.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
14. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis) and Apostolos Serletis (University of Calgary, Canada), "Martingales, Nonlinearity, and Chaos." This paper was invited for publication in a special edition of the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. The special edition was edited by Cars Hommes and Dee Dechert. The subject of the paper is the relationship between the efficient markets hypothesis and chaotic dynamics. We explore the question of whether or not dynamical systems theory is relevant to finance, and we report on some empirical evidence. The font used to produce this paper translates more accurately into the Postscript (ps) version than the Acrobat (pdf) version. Both are available online in the archive, but if you have an installed PostScript Reader, I suggest that you view the ps version instead of the fuzzy-looking pdf version. If you must view in the pdf version, it would be best to use the most expanded view of the pdf.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
15. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis) and Yijun He (Washington University in St. Louis), "Bifurcation in Continuous-Time Macroeconomic Systems." This paper was presented by Yijun He at the annual meetings of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics in New York and is forthcoming in the Society's journal, the Journal of Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. That journal is published online by MIT Press. The paper investigates bifurcation in the UK continuous-time macroeconometric model of Bergstrom, Nowman, and Wymer. We find that both saddle-node bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation can occur in that model within the range of its plausible parameter values, and in fact the two types of bifurcation can coexist in that region. We provide color bifurcation diagrams illustrating our findings. The font used to produce this paper translates more accurately into the Postscript (ps) version than the Acrobat (pdf) version. Both are available online in the archive, but if you have an installed PostScript Reader, I suggest that you view the ps version instead of the fuzzy-looking pdf version. If you must view in the pdf version, it would be best to use the most expanded view of the pdf.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
16. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis) and Yijun He (Washington University in St. Louis), "Center Manifold, Stability, and Bifurcations in Continuous Time Macroeconometric Systems." This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.  This paper is a follow-on to our earlier paper, "Bifurcations in Continuous-Time Macroeconomic Systems." In this paper, we determine the stability properties of the UK continuous time macroeconometric model on its bifurcation boundaries, and we test the null hypothesis that the model's parameters are inside the model's unstable region. We then attach to the model Bergstrom's recommended stabilization policy rule. We find that for most settings of his policy rule's parameters, the model's stable region becomes smaller. Hence the policy may be counter-productive. To the degree that "stabilization policy" is interesting, its intent must be to stabilize a system that is not stable. This is bifurcation. Hence "stabilization policy" can be defined to be bifurcation selection. We find that selection of a policy that will produce successful bifurcation from the model's unstable region to its stable region is much more difficult than previously believed. If in fact the economy is unstable without policy, the selection of successful stabilization policy is an exercise in a very difficult area of complex dynamics. Since Berstrom is one of the originators of the Bergstrom-Wymer-Nowman model, Bergstrom's choice of stabilization policy cannot be viewed as uninformed.
      We do find that a policy produced from optimal control theory is capable of bifurcating the system successfully from its unstable region to the stable region, conditionally upon fixed values of the structural parameters. But the form of the resulting policy rule is far too complicated to be interpreted readily in economic terms, and hence is too complicated to be of practical use to government. In addition, such a policy, even if implemented, cannot reasonably be viewed as robust to model specification error, since issues regarding the Lucas critique and time inconsistency (Kydland and Prescott) suggest the need for caution in any assumption of robustness of policy conclusions to specification error, when such experiments condition upon a structural model having structural parameters that remain constant during the experiment.
17. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis) and Yijun He (Washington State University), "Stabilization Policy as Bifurcation Selection: Would Keynesian Policy Work if the World Really were Keynesian?" This paper is an alternative writeup of the results reported in the prior paper above. The prior paper emphasizes the technical side of that research, while this writeup emphasizes the policy implications.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
18. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis),  Melvin J. Hinich (University of Texas at Austin), and Piyu Yue (University of Texas at Austin), "The Exact Theoretical Rational Expectations Monetary Aggregate,"  appeared in Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol 4, no 2 (June 2000).  In aggregation theory, index numbers are judged relative to their ability to track the exact aggregator functions nested within the economy's structure.  Within the monetary sector, Barnett, Liu, Xu, and Jensen  (see paper 4 above) compared two statistical index numbers: the Divisia monetary aggregate and the simple sum monetary aggregate. They produced those comparisons using simulated data. In this paper, we again compare those two statistical index numbers with the exact rational expectations monetary aggregate, but we use actual data. Since we are not using simulated data, we estimate the parameters of the Euler equations and thereby of the nested monetary aggregator function using generalized method of moments. We explore the tracking errors of the two index numbers relative to the estimated exact aggregate. We investigate the circumstances under which risk aversion increases tracking error. We also use polyspectral methods to test for the existence of remaining nonlinear structure in the residual tracking errors.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
19. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas) and Morgan Rose (Washington University), Joseph Schumpeter and Modern Nonlinear Dynamics, Prepared for Vittorangelo Orati and Shri Dahiya (eds.), Economic Theory in the Light of Schumpeter's Scientific Heritage: Essays in Memory of Schumpeter on his 50th Death Anniversary, Spellbound Publications, Rohtak, 2001, pp. 187-196.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
20. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis) and Yijun He (Washington State University), "Unsolved Econometric Problems in Nonlinearity, Chaos, and Bifurcation."  This paper was prepared for, and presented at, the Seventh Viennese Workshop on Optimal Control, Dynamic Games, and Nonlinear Dynamics.  The paper reports on unsolved problems in our research on econometric tests for nonlinearity and chaos and on bifurcation policies to stabilize unstable macroeconomic models.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
21. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis), "Fellow's Opinion:  Tastes and Technology, Curvature is not Sufficient for Regularity," which has appeared in the May 2002 issue of the Journal of Econometrics, as a JE Fellow's Opinion article.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
22. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis), "A Conversation with Henri (Hans) Theil: His Experiences in the Netherlands during the Second World War," in the Hans Theil Memorial Special Issue of the Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, vol 35, supplement, 2003, p. 57.  It has long been rumored among European economists that Theil had a difficult time in The Netherlands during the Second World War, but few, if any, economists knew what actually happened to him. Following Theil's retirement from the U. of Florida, I visited with him in St. Augustine, where Hans and his wife were living. I asked him about his experiences during the Second World War, and he told me what I report in this personal anecdote.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
23. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis), Ki-Hong Choi (National Pension Research Center in Seoul, Korea), and Tara M. Sinclair (Washington University in St. Louis), "The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory," in the Hans Theil Memorial Special Issue of the Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, vol 35, supplement, 2003, pp. 59-64.  This paper provides a new approach to the search for elements of Diewert's class of superlative index numbers.  Our approach involves the use of well known theorems on convergence.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
24. William A. Barnett (Washington University in St. Louis) and Meenakshi Pasupathy (Baruch College-SUNY), "Regularity of the Generalized Quadratic Production Model:  A Counterexample," on pp. 135 - 154 of Econometric Reviews, vol. 22, no. 2, 2003, which comprised a special issue in honor of Robert Basmann.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers and Ideas archives.
25. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas), "Aggregation-Theoretic Monetary Aggregation over the Euro Area, when Countries are Heterogeneous,"  This paper also is available as ECB Working Paper No. 260 on the web site of the European Central Bank.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, SSRN, and Kansas University archives.  The paper's abstract follows:
    
    

    We derive fundamental new theory for measuring monetary service flows aggregated over countries within the European Monetary Union (EMU).  We develop three increasingly restrictive approaches:  (1) the heterogeneous agents approach, (2) the multilateral representative agent approach, and (3) the unilateral representative agent approach.  Our heterogeneous agents approach contains our multilateral representative agent approach as a special case.

    In our most general approach, we assume the existence of a representative consumer within each country to aggregate within each country.  We use a stochastic approach to aggregation across countries over the heterogeneous representative agents, and we derive the resulting formulas for stochastic aggregation over countries.  Our theory permits monitoring the effects of policy at the aggregate level over the euro area, while also monitoring the distribution effects of policy among the countries of the euro area.  Our approach requires the simultaneous use of two inflation indexes over the euro area.
    
    

26. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas), "An Interview with Paul A. Samuelson."  This paper consists of the page proofs of W. A. Barnett's interview of Paul A. Samuelson, which appeared in print in the journal, Macroeconomic Dynamics, in September 2004.  To our knowledge, this is the first and only interview of Paul A. Samuelson published in a professional economics journal.  In addition, this is the only interview conducted solely by the Editor of Macroeconomic Dynamics, William A. Barnett.  The interview confers Samuelson's views on the economics profession from 1929 to the present and an overview of Samuelson's career as one of the greatest economists of all time.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
27. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas), Barry E. Jones (Binghamton University - SUNY), Milka Kirova (Washington University), Travis Nesmith (Federal Reserve Board), and Meenakshi Pasupathy (Bernard Baruch School - CUNY), The Nonlinear Skeletons in the Closet, in M. Belongia and J. Binner (eds.), Money, Measurement, and Computation, Palgrave, 2005.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
28. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas) and Shu Wu (University of Kansas), "On the User Costs of Risky Monetary Assets," Annals of Finance," vol. 1, no. 1, January 2005, pp. 35-50.  We extend the monetary-asset user-cost risk adjustment of Barnett, Liu, and Jensen (1997) and their risk-adjusted Divisia monetary aggregates to the case of multiple non-monetary assets and intertemporal non-separability.  Our model generates larger and more accurate CCAPM user-cost risk adjustments than those in Barnett, Liu, and Jensen.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
29. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas) and Shu Wu (University of Kansas), "Intertemporally non-separable monetary-asset risk adjustment and aggregation," Economics Bulletin. July 6, 2004, pp. 1-9.  This version is a short form, without the proofs, of the above paper #28, which has appeared in its full form in the Annals of Finance.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
30. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas) and Robert Solow (MIT), "An Interview with Franco Modigliani."  This paper consists of the actualy published interview that appeared in the journal, Macroeconomic Dynamics, in 2000.  Since I am one of the interviewers, I have now been permitted to make the interview available online as a "working paper."  The paper contains some astonishing revelations regarding Modigliani's life, starting with the circumstances of his move from Italy to France and subsequently to the United States during the Second World War, and reveals discrimination he initially faced in the United States.   In this interview, Modigliani clearly states that there is a stock market bubble, which in retrospect was a remarkably accurate prediction, including his estimate of the magnitude of the decline to expect and the nature and source of the confusion that produced the bubble.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
31. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas) and Stephen Spear (Carnegie Mellon University), "Macroeconomic Dynamics Online Submission."  This announcement is forthcoming in Macroeconomic Dynamics and has appeared in the Economics Bulletin (September 9, 2004).   The announcement regards the creation of a new online submission and manuscript processing system for the journal, Macroeconomic Dynamics.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
32. Yijun He (Washington State University) and William A. Barnett (University of Kansas), "Singularity Bifurcation."  This paper was invited by, and is forthcoming in, a special issue of the Journal of Macroeconomics on nonlinear dynamics.  The paper reports on our recent discovery of singularity bifurcation in macroeconometric Euler equation models and compares the properties of that surprising form of bifurcation with the properties of the better known forms of bifurcation in economics.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
33. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas), "Multilateral Aggregation-Theoretic Monetary Aggregation over Heterogeneous Countries."  This paper is forthcoming in the Journal of Econometrics and consists of a subset of the material in ECB Working Paper No. 260 on the web site of the European Central Bank.  Also see paragraph 25 above regarding the longer working paper form.  This Journal of Econometrics paper derives fundamental new theory for measuring monetary service flows aggregated over countries within a multicountry economic union and monitoring distribution effects.  The longer form ECB working paper also includes more specialized theory relevant to application of the general theory to the European Monetary Union.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
34. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas), "Monetary Aggregation."  This entry on monetary aggregation will appear under that title in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, edited by Steven Durlauf and Lawrence Blume. The entry provides an up-to-date overview of state-of-the-art research on monetary aggregation and index number theory, from its origins in 1980 to the current time. At the end of this dictionary entry, emphasis is placed on ongoing research on extensions to risk and to multilateral aggregation within multicountry areas, such as the euro area. Research on monetary aggregation theory has been especially successful in solving the 'puzzles' that have appeared in the monetary economics literature over the past 35 years.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
35. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas) and Mehmet Dalkir (University of Kansas), "Gains from Synchronization."  This paper investigates the transmission mechanisms of noise and volatility among countries through trade links, and the effects of synchronization on business cycles.  A revised version will appear in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
36. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas) and Chang Ho Kwag (POSCO Institute), "Exchange Rate Determination from Monetay Fundamentals:  an Aggregation Theoretic Approach."  This paper finds that the monetary model of exchange rate determination, which has usually been found not to work with simple sum monetary aggregates, succeeds when Divisia monetary aggregates are used.  A slightly revised draft is forthcoming in the journal, Frontiers in Finance and Economics.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
37. William A. Barnett (University of Kansas), "Comment on 'Chaotic Monetary Dynamics with Confidence'." This comment is an invited discussion of the paper, "Chaotic Monetary Dynamics with Confidence," by Serletis and Shintani.  Their paper and this comment were invited for publication in a special issue of the Journal of Macroeconomics, in which both will appear.  Working paper 32 above also will appear in that same special issue.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
38. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), Unja Chae (U. of Kansas), and John Keating (U. of Kansas), "The Discounted Economic Stock of Money with VAR Forecasting."  A revised draft is forthcoming in the Annals of Finance.  We measure the economic stock of money as the discounted present value of the Divisia service flow under various assumptions about expectations.  We find surprising robustness of the discounted capital stock to expectations.  Our results have important implications for measurement of the wealth effects of monetary policy.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
39. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), Unja Chae (U. of Kansas), and John Keating (U. of Kansas), "Forecast Design in Monetary Capital Stock Measurement."  This paper contains details of the forecast design used in producing our above working paper on measurement of the discounted economic stock of money.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives. 
    
40. William A Barnett (U. of Kansas), Apostolos Serletis (University of Calgary), and Demitre Serletis (University of Toronto), "Nonlinear and Complex Dynamics in Real Systems," forthcoming in the El-Naschie Anniversary Issue of the International Journal of Nonlinear Sciences and Numerical Simulation.  The paper was produced for the El-Naschie Symposium on Nonlinear Dynamics in Shanghai in December 2005.  The paper contrasts the order and organization hypothesis of real systems with nonlinear chaotic dynamics.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
41. Yijun He (Washington State University) and William Barnett (U. of Kansas), "Robustness of Inferences to Singularity Bifurcations," forthcoming in the Proceedings of the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings of the American Statistical Association.  This paper reports on our findings of singularity bifurcation with the Leeper and Sims Euler equations model.  This paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
42. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), Paul A. Samuelson (MIT), and E. Roy Weintraub (Duke U.), "Inside the Economist's Mind:  Conversations with Eminent Economists," front matter of a book published by Wiley/Blackwell.  The front matter includes the Table of Contents, Coeditor Preface by W. A. Barnett, Coeditor Foreword by P. A. Samuelson, and History of Thought Introduction by E. Roy Weintraub.  The chapters of the book are reprints of interviews first published in the Cambridge U. Press journal, Macroeconomic Dynamics.  This book front-matter also is online  in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
    
43. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), "Is Macroeconomics a Science?"  This paper is the Foreword to the forthcoming book, Apostolos Serletis, Money and the Economy.  This paper is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
44. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Ki-Hong Choi (National Pension Research Institute, Korea), "Operational Identification of the Complete Class of Superlative Index Numbers:  an Application of Galois Theory," forthcoming in the Journal of  Mathematical Economics.  This paper is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
45. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Ousmane Seck (U. of Kansas), "Rotterdam Model versus Almost Ideal Demand System: Will the Best Specification Please Stand Up?". This paper is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
46. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), "Divisia Monetary Index."  This paper is an encyclopedia entry to appear in William Darity (ed.), International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, second edition, Macmillan Reference USA (Thomson Gale).  This short paper is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
    
47. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), "Supply of Money."  This paper is an encyclopedia entry to appear in William Darity (ed.), International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, second edition, Macmillan Reference USA (Thomson Gale).  This short paper is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
48. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Evgeniya Duzhak (U. of Kansas), "Non-Robust Dynamic Inferences from Macroeconometric Models:  Bifurcation Stratification of Confidence Regions."  This paper is forthcoming in the journal, Physica A.  The paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.  The presentation slide show pdf also is online.
49. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Ikuyasu Usui (U. of Kansas), "The Theoretical Regularity Properties of the Normalized Quadratic Consumer Demand Model."  This paper has appeared in William A. Barnett and Apostolos Serletis (eds.), Functional Structure Inference, Elsevier, 2007.  The paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
50. Yijun He (Washington State U.) and William Barnett (U. of Kansas), "Existence of Bifurcation in Macroeconomic Dynamics:  Grandmont was Right."  The paper also is online in the EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.  The presentation slide show pdf also is online.
51. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), Marcelle Chauvet (U. of Calif. at Riverside), and Heather Tierney (U. of Calif. at Riverside), "Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates:  A Markov Switching Factor Approach."  The paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, SSRN, and Kansas University archives.  The paper is forthcoming in Macroeconomic Dynamics.
    
52. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), John W. Keating (U. of Kansas), and Logan J. Kelly (Bryant University), "Toward a Bias Corrected Currency Equivalent Index."  The paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
53. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Apostolos Serletis (U. of Calgary), "Consumer Preferences and Demand Systems."  The paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.  This paper is forthcoming in the Journal of Econometrics.
    
54. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), Barry E. Jones (Binghamton University), and Travis Nesmith (Federal Reserve Board), "Divisia Second Moments:  An Application of Stochastic Index Number Theory."  This paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.
55. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Marcelle Chauvet (U. of Calif. at Riverside),"International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory:  A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview."  This paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and Kansas University archives.  A revised draft is forthcoming in Open Economies Review. 
    
56. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Evgeniya Aleksandrovna Duzhak (CUNY Baruch College), "Empirical Assessment of Bifurcation Regions within New Keynesian Models."  This paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, SSRN, and the Kansas University archive.  The presentation slide show pdf also is online.
    
57. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), "What Broke the Bubble?".  This paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and the Kansas University archives.  A shorter version of the paper, without the charts, appeared as a Guest Commentary in the Kansas City Star Business Weekly on Tuesday, November 11, 2008, Section D, pp. D8-D9.
58. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Marcelle Chauvet (U. of Calif. at Riverside), "The End of the Great Moderation?"  This paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and the Kansas University archive.  The nontechnical version of the presentation slide-show pdf is online.
    
59. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Apostolos Serletis (U. of Calgary),  "Measuring Consumer Preferences and Estimating Demand Systems," forthcoming as a chapter in Daniel Slottje (ed.), Quantifying Consumer Preferences:  Estimating Demand Systems.  This paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and the Kansas University archive.
60. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Apostolos Serletis (U. of Calgary),  "The Differential Approach to Demand Analysis and the Rotterdam Model," forthcoming as a chapter in Daniel Slottje (ed.), Quantifying Consumer Preferences:  Estimating Demand Systems.  This paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and the Kansas University archive.
61. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Philippe de Peretti (Sorbonne), "Admissible Clustering of Aggregator Components:  A Necessary and Sufficient Stochastic Semi-Nonparametric Test for Weak Separability."  This paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and the Kansas University Archive.
62. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Ousmane Seck (Cal. State U. of Fullerton), "Estimation with Inequality Constraints on Parameters and Truncation of the Sampling Distribution."  This paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and the Kansas University Archive.
    
63. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas) and Susan He (Washington State University), "Existence of Singularity Bifurcation in an Euler-Equations Model of the United States Economy:  Grandmont was Right."  This paper was invited for a special issue of the Elsevier journal, Economic Modelling, in honor of PAVB Swamy, to be published in 2010.  The paper is a major revision of Working Paper #50 above.  The paper also is online in EconPapers and Ideas.  The presentation slide show pdf also is online.
64. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), W. Erwin Diewert (UBC), and Arnold Zellner (U. of Chicago), "Introduction to Measurement with Theory."  This paper is to appear as the introduction to a special issue of Macroeconomic Dynamics on Measurement with Theory.  The paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and the Kansas University Archive.
65. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), "The Internal Politics of Journal Editing."  This invited essay is to appear in the American Economist and in a book collecting together similar articles by journal editors.  The paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and the Kansas University Archive.
66. This is the announcement for my talk, "The End of the Great Moderation?  How Better Monetary Statistics Could Have Signaled the System Risk Precipitating the Financial Crisis," at the Alvamar Country Club, Lawrence Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Speaker, October 23, 2009.
67. James Heckman (U. of Chicago) and Apostolos Serletis (U. of Calgary), "Internally Consistent Modeling, Aggregation, Inference, and Policy," accepted proposal for special issue in my honor.  The special issue will appear in the Journal of Econometrics.
    
68. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), "Who's Looking at the Fed's Books?", New York Times, October 22, 2009, p. A35.  In addition to that direct link to the NY Times, the article permanently is saved locally on this server.
69. William A. Barnett (U. of Kansas), "This is No Way to Fix the Fed," Kansas City Star, December 15, 2009, pp. C7 and C16.  In addition to that direct link to the Kansas City Star, the article permanently is saved locally on this server.
70. William A. Barnett, "Audit the Federal Reserve?"  This paper will appear in slightly modified form in the journal, Central Banking.  The paper also is online in EconPapers, Ideas, and the Kansas University Archive.
    

I can be reached by e-mail at: barnett@ku.edu.